Traditionally, the task of evaluating the effectiveness of a weapon system in a combat engagement is performed using a two-step approach. The first step is to create an error budget for the system being analyzed, and the second step is to use that error budget to evaluate the probability of defeating a target.
An error budget is a collection of forces and effects that contribute to a fired round missing its intended aim point. These forces and effects are described through equations that calculate their downrange miss distances. The values of the results are then root-sum-squared into three categories based on how the errors manifest themselves in an scenario. These categories are round-to-round, burst-to-burst, and engagement-to-engagement. These values are then used in further analysis.
Once an error budget has been created, it is used with one of two methodologies to calculate the probability of defeating a target. These two methodologies are known as R3011 and FBAR and are generically illustrated in FIG. 1. The method used to analyze the weapon depends on the complexity of the firing situation. R3011 is a statistical approach that is used in direct fire situations with simple targets. FBAR is an iterative solution that is used in more complex scenario or with air burst munitions.
In general, the conventional solution to the problem of evaluating a weapon system has several drawbacks and/or shortcomings. One such drawback is that the equations in the error budget are only a rough estimation of the actual effect. The current error budget structure cannot handle the necessary complexity needed to describe the error source fully. This limitation results in a loss of accuracy. It also makes the traditional method inadequate for studying dynamic error sources such as erratic winds, inconsistent metrological data, and variable accuracy laser range finders. Additionally, the requirement of having to categorize each error source to one of the aforementioned three main categories mentioned leads to a loss of realism in the model. All these drawbacks create an opportunity for improvement in the error budget implementation.
Each probability of hit evaluation approach also has its drawbacks. R3011 is limited to analyzing relatively simple cases, such as direct fire on a rectangular target. If a non-rectangular target is considered, the R3011 statistical methodology becomes very complex and cannot be solved in a reasonable amount of time. Furthermore, R3011 is limited to the number of rounds that can be fired at a target.
As shown in FIG. 2, the computations become unstable between 5 and 15 rounds causing an error in the solution. FBAR tries to overcome these drawback by using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of defeating the target. While being able to handle situations that R3011 cannot, it still has its limitations. FBAR does not provide any type of situational awareness for the scenario being considered, thus making it difficult to understand what is happening in the simulation. It is also limited to three levels of randomization due to its ties to the error budget.
Errors can only be drawn for the main categories and not for individual errors. Because of this, real data cannot be used direction with the current solution to calculate the probability of hit. In addition, since FBAR is implemented in a command prompt software, it takes a skilled engineer to run the analysis and the process of optimizing a solution becomes very time consuming.
There are some system level shortcomings as well. Since the neither R3011 nor FBAR can interact with the error budget directly, it has become difficult to examine how changes in the error budget influence the performance of the weapon system. This capability is critical to optimizing a weapon system. Furthermore, the conventional solutions make it difficult for Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to collaborate. Information about errors is traditionally held in confidence and not shared. As a result, the error budget equations becomes cryptic and difficult to use and understand. This also leads to each SME having his/her individual error budget for a particular weapon system that requires interpretation.
Therefore, a need arises for a more flexible, dynamic, and practical method for analyzing the performance of a weapon system in an engagement scenario. The need for such a modeling and simulation method has heretofore remained unsatisfied.